Looking Forward to a Rally That Begins in 2026

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Are President Trump’s efforts to reshore manufacturing succeeding? Are the administration’s efforts to boost domestic coal consumption and steel production working? Most would agree that we are seeing an improvement compared to three or four years ago, and the unforeseen demand for power from data centers is also adding to the positive momentum.

Prior to COVID-19, the USA had essentially regulated itself out of business. Factories were moving offshore, industrial jobs were drying up and many had accepted the fate of the USA becoming a consumer nation rather than a producer. Power demand was flat and regulations favored bringing expensive intermittent power into the mix. The pandemic disrupted everything and exposed the strategic deficiencies in supply lines and the world’s dependence on China.

Coal Age is not knocking China. They made an investment and they are reaping the rewards. While much of the industrialized world grappled with questionable environmental regulations, China was building power plants, steel mills and smelters. They secured the resources they needed and now the rest of the world is trying to catch up.

Throughout this edition of Coal Age, readers will note examples of utilities extending the lives of coal-fired power plants. The U.S. Energy Information Administration noted growing coal consumption in 2025, and the International Energy Agency is reporting 2025 as the third consecutive year of record coal consumption and production worldwide (See Closing Notes, p. 40). Yet, both agencies continue to project a decline in future coal demand.

In the USA, Georgia and the Atlanta area are very business friendly. Georgia Power recently reported that its large-load growth continues with thousands of megawatts of new electrical load projected in the coming years. In the last two years, its large-load customer commitments expanded from 3,612 megawatts (MW) to 10,999 MW. The total economic development pipeline has expanded from 17,000 MW to 53,500 MW through the mid-2030s, and near-term 2028/2029 large loads have increased by approximately 13,900 MW.

On the resources side, Coal Age has already documented Nippon Steel’s investment in U.S. Steel. Korea Zinc recently announced plans to build a zinc smelter in Tennessee. During October, Century Aluminum signed a power deal with Santee Cooper, extending its electricity supply for the Mt. Holly, S.C., smelter through 2031, which will allow the company to restart idled capacity and boost U.S. aluminum by 10%. There is a revival taking place as the USA learns how to become self-sufficient again. While the situation in today’s coal business is less than ideal, the direction we are heading today is better than it was three or four years ago.

Enjoy this edition of Coal Age. Have a safe and enjoyable holiday season, and a prosperous new year.



Source: www.coalage.com

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