Winter arrived in the USA with a vengeance as this edition was going to press. Most of the lower 48 states were facing frigid temps even by Canadian standards. Lately, the people who have grown accustomed to warmer winters were surprised by its return, and so were the utilities that provide power. While they won’t admit it publicly, they are likely happy that U.S. Secretary of Energy Chris Wright forced them to keep coal capacity online.
Keeping up with demand is transitioning from a “peak winter” and “peak summer” discussion to a year-round concern. The North American Electric Reliability Corp.’s (NERC) latest long-term reliability assessment found that more than one-half (13 of 23) of the assessment areas will lack capacity over the next decade. The largest service areas, including PJM, MISO, ERCOT, WECC-Basin and WECC-Northwest, are all at high-risk of energy shortfalls in the next five years.
NERC now expects summer peak demand and winter demand to jump by more than 225 gigawatts (GW) and 245 GW, respectively, over the next decade. The agency highlighted increased electrical demand from data centers as a driving force. That, along with expected growth in industrial demand is signaling larger problems ahead. NERC is warning against further fossil fuel retirements.
Many countries besides the USA are facing capacity shortfalls as they try to make the leap to a fossil-free future. As an example, Coal Age reports this month on the postponement of the closure of the Eraring power plant in Australia. And, then there are the countries that are regretting the decision.
At the World Economic Forum (WEF), which took place in January in Davos, Switzerland, Germany’s Chancellor said that the Energiewende (energy transition) is a failure in its current form. Last year, Bill Gates said the world should focus on priorities other than net-zero, and now this from Deutschland. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said the country’s nuclear exit was a mistake and it does not have sufficient generating capacity, saying that Energiewende is too expensive and not sustainable. It’s only a matter of time before he realizes discontinuing coal-fired power was a mistake, too.
For the longest time, electrical demand grew by a few percentage points annually. Now, it’s accelerating and modern, industrialized nations cannot afford to attach growth plans to intermittent sources that lack capacity when it’s needed most.
Source: www.coalage.com
