Jakarta, TAMBANG, – The international rating agency Fitch Ratings has raised its assumptions on the prices of metals and mining commodities for 2026. This projection is considered to have the potential to provide positive sentiment for the share performance of mining issuers listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (BEI).
According to the official Fitch Ratings report, the projected copper price will increase from the previous US$9,500/ton to US$11,500/ton. The assumed increase in copper prices is driven by increasing demand from global electrification.
Meanwhile, aluminum price assumptions have also been raised for the entire projection period as demand is expected to remain strong in the next few years. For 2026, the projected price will increase from US$2,550 to US$2,900 per ton.
“The assumed increase in aluminum prices for the entire period reflects expectations of demand growth remaining healthy and limited additional supply in the medium term, apart from plans to increase capacity in Indonesia and Southeast Asia,” quoted from the official Fitch Rating website.
For gold, Fitch raised price assumptions throughout the projection period in line with the surge in market prices driven by central bank purchases and increased investment allocations from institutional and retail investors in line with global geopolitical tensions. The increase in gold prices is predicted to occur from the level of US$3,400 to US$4,500 per ton.
For thermal coal, Fitch increased the price assumption from US$95 to US$110 per ton, due to tighter market conditions, especially in the first quarter of 2026. This was triggered by a decline in Indonesian coal exports due to policy uncertainty and weakening Chinese domestic production.
Meanwhile, the short-term nickel price assumption has also been increased to US$16,000, in line with the Indonesian government’s policy of setting a lower production quota. This policy has the potential to suppress global supply, thereby supporting nickel prices on the international market.
Director of PT Reliance Sekuritas Indonesia Tbk, Reza Priyambada, said that the increase in commodity price assumptions reflects Fitch’s assessment of current global conditions. According to him, rising commodity prices usually provide positive sentiment for issuers related to this sector.
“With this potential increase, market players will usually assume that this increase will have a particularly positive impact on issuers related to this commodity,” said Reza.
In the same vein, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Senior Market Analyst Nafan Aji Gusta Utama assessed that Fitch’s steps to increase the assumption of metal and commodity prices in 2026 are normal. According to him, this projection has the potential to be a positive catalyst for increasing the share prices of the relevant issuers.
He gave an example, the prospects for PT Aneka Tambang Tbk (ANTM) are in line with the strong dynamics of global gold prices amidst geopolitical uncertainty. With gold prices expected to remain high, profit margins from ANTM’s precious metals refining division are predicted to remain strong in early 2026
The downstreaming carried out by ANTM together with the entire MIND ID Group is also an added value. Collaboration with world giants such as CATL and LG Energy Solution through Indonesia Battery Corporation (IBC) is starting to enter the advanced construction and operational phase of several HPAL (High-Pressure Acid Leaching) smelter lines.
On the other hand, increasingly stringent government policies on raw material exports will increasingly benefit ANTM and the MIND ID Group because they already have an established processing infrastructure (ferronickel smelter).
For information, ANTM, which is a joint member with PT Merdeka Copper Gold Tbk (MDKA), is currently leading the rise in share prices among gold issuers since the beginning of 2026. When compared, ANTM’s share price has risen 9.03% year to date (ytd), and MDKA has risen 38.63% ytd as of the close of trading Friday, (27/3/2026).
From a technical perspective, Head of Research Retail MNC Sekuritas Herditya Wicaksana looked at a number of interesting commodity stocks to pay attention to. These include PT Merdeka Gold Resources Tbk (EMAS) with a target price in the range of 9,000-9,400, and PT Archi Indonesia Tbk (ARCI) in the range of 1,755-1,905.
“Furthermore, the recommended price for PT Alamtri Resources Indonesia Tbk (ADRO) is in the range of 2,520-2,600, and for state-owned coal issuer PT Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk (PTBA) at the level of 2,900-3,080,” said Herditya.
In the midst of the projected increase in global commodity prices, shares of mining issuers, including those who are members of the MIND ID Group ecosystem, have the potential to gain positive sentiment. Market players can pay attention to the fundamental and technical conditions of the shares before making investment decisions.
Source: tambang.co.id
